the phase of global geopolitical dislocation
Published on Europe 2020.org, by GEAB newsletter no. 32, Feb 16, 2009.
(My first comment: such previsions act mostly as self fulfilling prophecies, but as our world leaders obviously do not get it – burrying the actual system and build a new one – I guess the story below could finish as real fact. Let’s add: there are groups WANTING such a result).
Back in February 2006, LEAP/E2020 estimated that the global systemic crisis would unfold in 4 main structural phases: trigger, acceleration, impact and decanting phases. This process enabled us to properly anticipate events until now. However our team has now come to the conclusion that, due to the global leaders’ incapacity to fully realise the scope of the ongoing crisis (made obvious by their determination to cure the consequences rather than the causes of this crisis), the global systemic crisis will enter a fifth phase in the fourth quarter of 2009, a phase of global geopolitical dislocation.
According to LEAP/E2020, this new stage of the crisis will be shaped by two major processes happening in two parallel sequences:
A. Two major processes:
- 1. Disappearance of the financial base (Dollar & Debt) all over the world
- 2. Fragmentation of the interests of the global system’s big players and blocks
B. Two parallel sequences:
- 1. Quick disintegration of the current international system altogether
- 2. Strategic dislocation of big global players
We had hoped that the decanting phase would give the world’s leaders the opportunity to draw the proper conclusions from the collapse of the global system prevailing since WWII. Alas, at this stage, it is no longer possible to be optimistic in this regard.
In the United States, as in Europe, China and Japan, leaders persist in reacting as if the global system has only fallen victim to some temporary breakdown, merely requiring loads of fuel (liquidities) and other ingredients (rate drops, repurchase of toxic assets, bailouts of semi-bankrupt industries, … ) to reboot it.
In fact (and this is what LEAP/E2020 means ever since February 2006 using the expression « global systemic crisis”), the global system is simply out of order; a new one needs to be built instead of striving to save what can no longer be saved.
(My second comment: the saving of the old system is made with the few money the states still could manage. At the end we all will loose all.
Question then: what will be the NEW power play? With whom? Could this humanity be able to create a new structures WITHOUT leaks of control? A control made by ALL citizens … all earth citizens and zero delegations.
Or will we end up in middle age situations with war lords, commanding each a geographic sector, like in Ken Follett’s The Pillars of the Earth?
Let’s me finish with an ugly thought: too many of our elites have their richness INSIDE of this economic system and therefore want safe also their own belongings. No, they will NOT build up a new system, they will take all our money to safe the old one).