Meanwhile, in Europe …

Published on Real-World Economics Review Blog, by Merijn Knibbe, December 5, 2010.

As we all know, Europe consists of the five following regions:

  • 1. Austeristia, consisting of countries with a negative current account, a high government deficit and mostly high unemployment due to exploded real estate bubbles: Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, the United Kingdom.
  • 2. Greater Germania, consisting of countries with a positive current account, medium or low government deficits, medium to high unemployment and either no bubbles or exploding real estate bubbles: Germany, Denmark, Belgium, Austria, the Netherlands, the Czech republic … // 

… The regional data on production are, when it comes to monthly data, based on a comparison of the latest two months available (seasonally adjusted) with the preceding two moths available.

1. Europe as a whole (EU 27),

  • changes, latest data, all data compared with previous month or period: GDP, quarterly growth: +0,5%. Inflation, november: 1,9% compared with 2009, same as october. Unemployment, october, 10,1%, +0,1%.  Construction, september, -2,5%. Industrial new orders, september, -2,5%. Industrial production, september, -0,5%. REtail sales: + 0,7%. Except for retail sales, the euro area does worse than the EU 27 area.

2. Cherry picking (highlighting differences):

  • industrial new orders, level, 2005 = 100, september: Latvia: 307; Poland 187; Slovakia 170, Romania 199.  Greece: 76, Slovakia 69.
  • youth unemployment, Spain: 43%. Unemployment, the Netherlands, males: 4,2%.
  • Construction, quarterly data, latest available information, level (2005 = 100): Spain: 56. Ireland: 28. Romania and Poland: 152.
  • Retail sales, compared with previous year: Poland + 12,8%, Slovakia -3,7%.

Regional data: … see list …

Summary: Poland is booming, Sweden is doing quite well. Both are non-euro countries. Greater Germania shows signs of weakening, the ’Outer realms’ show a very mixed development (extreme unemployment but very strong growth of industrial production but also weakening consumer demand), Slovakia is experiencing an outright double dip. Differences are large throughout, though the Euro area at the moment fares worse than the non-Euro area. (full text).

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