Published on PINR, by Michael A. Weinstein , 19 September 2007.
The Failure of Reconciliation and Reconstitution Opens Up a Political Vacuum in Somalia:
An excerpt of the end: … There are several scenarios for Somalia’s political future. In PINR’s judgment, the most likely one is continued devolution intensified by a possible spread of wider and more unified armed resistance against the Ethiopian and T.F.G. forces, and augmented by a loss of interest in Somalia by external actors, which will leave the country in the state of neglect that it suffered in the decade between 1994, when an international presence ended, and 2004, when the T.F.G. was formed.
Expect the Ethiopians to be worn down by attrition, the African states to become cooler to AMISOM, and the great powers to be unwilling to commit the resources necessary to make a political process attractive and to provide security.
The failure of reconciliation and reconstitution leaves Somalia where it was before the conferences, but that failure is also an indicator of the severity of fragmentation that external actors will take to heart. They have no Plan B and are likely to step back slowly from Somalia. The political vacuum will open wider, with the new possibility of civil war. (full long text).